De trendbijbel

Research Results – Breaks Upwards and Downwards from Trends

Stocks in rising trends breaking upwards have continued upwards, and at a stronger rate of increase than before. Stocks breaking downwards through the floor of a falling trend have seen strongly negative price development.

Research Results – Breaks Upwards and Downwards from Trends

Figure 1: Breaks in the trend direction. Average price development for stocks breaking upwards through the ceiling of rising trends and downwards through the floor of falling trends in Investtech’s medium long term technical charts.



 

Figure 2: Breaks opposite of trend direction. Average price development for stocks breaking downwards through the floor of rising trend and upwards through the ceiling of falling trend in Investtech’s medium long term technical charts.



 

Relative return, rising trends and breaks Norway Sweden Denmark Finland Weighted average
Breaking upwards from rising trend 4.7 ppt 2.8 ppt 2.6 ppt 1.1 ppt 3.3 ppt
Within rising trend 2.3 ppt 1.5 ppt 2.3 ppt 0.2 ppt 1.8 ppt
Breaking downwards from rising trend 0.4 ppt 0.4 ppt 1.1 ppt -0.6 ppt 0.4 ppt

Relative return, falling trends and breaks Norway Sweden Denmark Finland Weighted average
Breaking downwards from falling trend -7.8 ppt -6.3 ppt -9.9 ppt -5.6 ppt -7.3 ppt
Within falling trend -3.2 ppt -2.0 ppt -4.9 ppt -2.0 ppt -2.8 ppt
Breaking upwards from falling trend -0.2 ppt 0.3 ppt -1.1 ppt 1.3 ppt 0.0 ppt

ppt: percentage points

The charts and tables above show that stocks in rising trends with breaks upwards continue to rise with a stronger rate of increase than stocks within rising trends. Stocks with breaks downwards from rising trends have also continued upwards, but at a rate of increase clearly weaker than stocks within a rising trend and only barely above the market development.

Stocks breaking downwards through the floor of a falling trend have seen very negative further development with a fall of 7.3 percentage points more than benchmark for the weighted average of all the Nordic signals. This is clearly weaker than stocks within a falling trend. Stocks that have broken upwards through the ceiling of a falling trend have developed neutrally compared to the marked in the coming period, which in absolute number gives a rise of 3.5 per cent in the next three months.

The above results fit well with technical analysis theory on breaks from trends. Breaks upwards have given rising prices and stronger rate of increase than earlier. Breaks downwards from rising trends have given continued rise but at a weaker rate of increase. Breaks downward from falling trends have given further fall at a stronger rate of decrease than before.

The results contradict the theory for one indicator: breaks upwards from falling trends. This has not given further fall, but instead an increase in line with the market.

 

Trendbibeln är skriven av forskningschef Geir Linløkken under 2016. Forskningsteamet bakom Trendbibeln består av seniorforskarna Asbjørn Taugbøl och Fredrik Tyvand, samt Linløkken själv.

Trendbibeln - startsida

Investtech har arbetat med forskning inom behavioural finance, teknisk och kvantitativ aktieanalys sedan 1997. Företaget har utvecklat ett analyssystem som bland annat identifierar trender, stöd och motstånd, formationer och volymmönster i aktiekurser, och ger köp- och sälj-rekommendationer baserat på detta. Investtech gör omfattande användning av avancerade matematiska algoritmer och tunga statistiska metoder i sina dataprogram och internetbaserade abonnemangstjänster.

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Investeringsaanbevelingen worden gedaan door Investtech.com AS ("Investtech"). Investtech garandeert geen volledigheid of juistheid van de analyses. Eventuele fouten in de aanbevelingen, koop- en verkoopsignalen en mogelijke negatieve gevolgen hiervan zijn geheel het risico van de belegger. Investtech neemt geen enkele verantwoordelijkheid voor verlies, direct of indirect, als gevolg van het gebruik van Investtechs analyses. Meer informatie omtrent Investtechs analyses kunt u vinden op disclaimer.

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